The Long Con of @RJinVegas: "Vegas" Says (Part Two)

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K 100K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 16th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

Back in August, we established that:

using "Vegas" as a meaningless buzzword to attribute an undeserving level of importance to the information you're tweeting

...is bad. In this post, I'm going to attempt to expand on that thought by looking at two more subsets of "Vegas Says".

Imaginary Lines

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #retweetsTHO

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 90K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 15th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

We've previously looked at how, beyond everything else, Bell cannot be entrusted with simple reporting. Which shouldn't come as a surprise, since he has little reason to "provide accurate facts" and every incentive to draw attention to his #brand by stretching the truth.

Last week's Florida St.-Miami line gave us another excellent example of his untrustworthiness:

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #TERNDZ (Part Three)

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 14th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

This man is out of control. From Monday afternoon:

Entering this week, #Colts only team with 6 covers against the Vegas number.
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) November 3, 2014

Great info as always. A slight disagreement, though:

@RJinVegas aren't the chiefs 7-1? versus the #? Only loss in week 1.
— Steve Marsicek (@smarsicek19) November 3, 2014

Hmm. For some clarity, let's check Covers (excluding Week 9, because "entering this week"):

Okay, fair enough. If you count the 49ers game as a loss (or even a push), the Chiefs only had five ATS covers coming into the week. Makes sense, as long as you don't...

#Chiefs have covered the Vegas spread 7 STRAIGHT games - by a combined 91 points.
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) November 6, 2014

Oh damn it.

Don't see any getting around this one. RJ is using KC +4.5/5 to make the Colts stat work, and KC +5.5 to claim they've covered seven straight. He was corrected twice along the way, and obviously ignored the haters both times.

@keithlaw @WillBrinson You may or may not agree. My goal is to provide accurate facts for people to consider and be entertained by.
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) October 17, 2014

Previous Long Con post: #TERNDZ (Part Two)

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #TERNDZ (Part Two)

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 13th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

Last week, some folks disagreed with each other on the internet. It started with an exchange between our protagonist and ESPN MLB writer/analyst Keith Law:

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: "Repackaging" Info

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 12th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

As noted, Bell tweets out a lot of annoying/worthless/false nonsense. But nothing is more frustrating than when he takes other people's (actually interesting!) info and makes it his own. One recent example:

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: Q&A

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 11th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

Over the last six weeks, I've written quite a bit about RJ Bell: ten blog posts, including 45 embedded tweets, 18 screengrabbed forum posts, 12 screengrabbed tweets, five charts, and one partially transcribed conference call. Having spent so much time researching and writing about this topic, I figured I should put together a post summarizing my various findings.

Since folks will be encountering Bell in different circumstances, it seems appropriate to organize my findings by the various questions which may arise.

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: Is This Earth?

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the tenth post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

In need of some RTs during the slow summer months, Bell tweeted a few times about the odds of LeBron James' free agent destination. The most amusing example;

LeBron odds: Mia -600 (61%); Cle 5/1 (12%); LAC 7/1 (9%); Hou 10/1 (6%) Chi 15/1 (4%); LAL, NYK 25/1 (3%); Dal 30/1 (2%) - via sportsbook.ag
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) June 24, 2014

This one might give "12% All-Star game Swing!" a run for its money.

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: "Vegas" Says

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the ninth post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

In the world of sports, people tend to ascribe a lot of importance to what "Vegas" says. And in a lot of cases, there's good reason for that. Particularly when you're dealing with mature markets in major sports with high limits, the current Vegas line is not something to scoff it, as it gives you a pretty good indication of how the two teams stack up.

Of course, simply attributing a piece of information to "Vegas" doesn't make it worthwhile:

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #TERNDZ

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the eighth (!) post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

One of RJ Bell's favorite things to do during the NFL season is to tweet out "noteworthy" trends relating to upcoming games. As per usual, he does this to get retweets and promote his #brand, while displaying absolutely no interest in providing helpful information.

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #MATH

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the seventh post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

Beyond lacking any understanding of how betting markets actually work, RJ Bell is also not very good at simple math. I can prove this in under 140 characters:

If #Cardinals had home field: 57% chance to win Series (via @JayKornegay). Actual odds: 45%. 12% All-Star game swing!
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) October 23, 2013 

This tweet is concerning for a long list of reasons. For our purposes, I've narrowed it down to four.

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: World Openers

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the sixth post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

RJ Bell has turned himself into much more than the founder and CEO of a tout site that sells shitty picks; there's a reason this series isn't called "The Long Con of @PregameNow". He's a Grantland columnist, an ESPN radio host, an occasional SportsCenter guest, and a very popular tweeter.

Which would be fine, I'm all for more coverage of sports betting markets in the mainstream media. Except Bell either doesn't know, or simply doesn't care about, what actually goes on in these markets. All of these media appearances have nothing to do with sharing accurate or interesting information. Rather, their only purpose is to build Bell's brand so he can eventually get you to his tout site and sell you some shitty picks.

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: "Transparency"

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the fifth post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

RJ Bell really likes to talk about the transparency of his company's business practices:

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: Bet Like A Pro (Part Three)

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the fourth post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

After a brief but worthwhile interlude, let's get back to examining whether Bet Like A Pro (BLAP) contains "any element of a scam".

Step 3: Make it impossible for a neutral third-party to verify the long-term record of your program.

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: Bet Like A Pro (Part Two)

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the third post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

The folks at Pregame love to talk about Steve Fezzik's "network" of "sharps". For example, from the same classic thread we delved into last time:

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: Bet Like A Pro (Part One)

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the second post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

When we last left off, RJ Bell was essentially admitting that his touts are not long-term winners, and explaining that yes, he was defending his operation in exactly the same way any scam artist would, but Pregame doesn't have ANY element of a scam, so he is clearly no scam artist.

As good as Bell may be at deflecting and giving non-answers, it's probably not realistic to run a large pick-selling operation without ever being able to claim that any of your touts are long-term winners. Fortunately, about 18 months ago, Bell found a way around this issue. You be the judge regarding whether the following contains "any element of a scam".

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: Defining Value

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the first post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling.

When selling sports betting picks, most touts have a fairly standard approach: they claim that the picks will win. This ranges from stating that a game is lock, to advertising how hot they've been over their past 12 3* releases, to saying they'll win in the long-term. Regardless of how they get there, the idea is the same: they're selling winners.

Certainly, Pregame employs some aspects of this approach. But the weird thing is, its founder and CEO doesn't seem to have ever totally bought in.