The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLV Props

The fourth annual edition! Let's get right into it:

Who will win the Super Bowl XLV Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:

Steelers, +103
Packers, +103

Start off with an easy one. Plenty of shops are offering reduced juice on the coin toss (how generous!), but SBET is the only place I've seen plus money on either side, let alone both.

First team to kickoff will be?

Pinnacle:

Steelers -125
Packers +107

Does Pittsburgh have a tendency to defer to the second half? Pinnacle isn't in the business of just making stuff up (well, not usually), so there's likely a good reason this isn't 50-50, but I'm not sure where to look that up.

Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach?

I used to think I had this one figured out -- it was clear/water for three consecutive years -- but not anymore, as C/W has lost the last two SBs and its odds have also come down. Tomlin is "not a proponent" of the Gatorade dump, so it may not happen at all, but that seems unlikely.

I went through the entire Yahoo! galleries for both conference title games (240 photos total!) and didn't see a drop of Gatorade, so no help there. Taking the best odds for each color, these only add up to 103%, so they're very beatable, but I'm just not sure where.

What side of the ball will the players that perform the Gatorade shower be from?

BetUS:

Offense, +130
Defense, -170

Bodog:

Offense, +150
Defense, -200

Sportsbook:

Offense, +165

Defense, -225

I definitely lean toward the defense here, although it's tough to know how much juice it's actually worth paying. Logic dictates that the defensive players are significantly more likely, since there are a lot more of them on the sideline when the offense is kneeling, but the books have adjusted to this seemingly obvious fact over the last couple years.

Time on the Game Clock When the Winning Team Attempts to Dump Gatorade on Head Coach

Sportsbook:

Over 45 seconds left in 4Q, +115
Under 45 seconds left in 4Q, -145

They do love these Gatorade props, and this is a new one. There are actually a lot of variables in play here. Will the game be close? Even if it is, will there be at least two kneel downs at the end? If there are, will the Gatorade be dumped after the last one, or prior to that. This opened at -120/-120, so I think it was bet in the right direction, but I can't find much value here.

Who will MVP thank 1st?

I love this one. The odds have come down a bit on "Does Not Thank Anyone", but not nearly enough, particularly at Sportsbook. For at least the last four years, the MVP has not technically thanked anyone. This isn't because they're not grateful -- I suspect they are -- but because it'd just be weird to specifically thank a group in an interview unless the question is, "Who would you like to thank?". For example, here is what I said about the MVP's interview last year:

Brees was plenty gracious -- he said "God is great", and talked about how the Saints had the best ownership, best head coach, best GM, and best team -- but none of those counted.

A similar prop is being offered for the winning coach's interview at a couple places and I think there's value there as well: +350 at BetUS, and +400 at Sportsbook.

Length of National Anthem:

Bodog:

Over 1:54, -160
Under 1:54, +120

Sportsbook:

Over 1:54, -200
Under 1:54, +150

Bodog actually opened this at 1:50 last week, so it's clear that bettors have been favoring the over.

The most relevant example here is definitely Aguilera's performance during the NBA Finals last summer. I've got that one at 1:52, which makes U1:54 +150 quite intriguing. Going back a few years, I'm getting 1:58 for her rendition at what I believe was the 2004 NBA All-Star game. But the drums in the background of that one add some uncertainty, and she actually sang "home of the brave" twice.

For another data point, at a hockey game that supposedly took place in August of 2005, she made it through in a swift 1:44. I think there is value in the under at Sportsbook here.

How long will Christina Aguilera hold the note “Brave” at the end of the National Anthem?

Bodog:

Over 6 seconds, -140
Under 6 seconds, EV

Sportsbook:

Over 6 seconds, -130
Under 6 seconds, -110

This is a good one, although she was at exactly six seconds last summer despite strangely walking off before finishing, so not much of a lean here.

What will Fergie be wearing at halftime?

BetUS:

Pants (blow knees), +175
Shorts (above knees), +400
Skirt/dress, +135
Thong/G-String/Bikini bottom, +1500
Tight bodysuit, +150

"Tight bodysuit" was actually 7-1 when I originally pulled these odds on Monday night. I don't really have much else to say here, but figured I'd share these. Especially if we have a situation like the Kardashian one last year, where she announces what she's going to wear prior to the game.

Will a punt hit the scoreboard during the game?

Sportsbook:

Yes, +1000
No, -2500

Tough to get rich laying -2500 on props with $50 limits, but is there really a 3.8% chance that a punt hits the scoreboard? It's my understanding that when Trapasso hit it in the preseason, it was on purpose, and I can't imagine the punters are going to be messing around like that on Sunday. The fact that this didn't come up at all during the regular season makes it even more likely that Trapasso was just being difficult.

How many times will FOX mention "lockout" (from kickoff to final whistle)?

Bodog:

Over 1.5, -110
Under 1.5, -130

They originally had this at 2.5, which I thought was definitely high. At this point it's really a matter of whether the lockout is brought up at all, since if it is they'll likely say "lockout" more than once. My lean would still be toward the under; as with the "thanks" props, I just don't think there's really going to be an appropriate time to bring up the impending labor issues. I wouldn't even be surprised if Buck and Aikman were specifically asked to not mention it during the league's premier event.

Highest rated commercial on USA Today Ad Meter:

Bodog/Sportsbook:

Bud Light, +275
Budweiser, +275
Doritos, +550
GoDaddy.com, +1000
Pepsi Max, +600
Skechers, +1200
Teleflora, +1500
Other, +250

The most exciting prop from XLIV returns, but the odds seem a lot more reasonable this year (sadly Bookmaker has not gotten involved).

With its strong showings the last two years (#1 in '09, #2 in '10), Doritos is interesting at +550. You can actually watch the five finalists from their "Crash the Super Bowl" contest here; I thought the first one was quite funny, but the other four were very mediocre. The Pepsi Max commercials are on that same page, none of them really stood out to me.

GoDaddy always gets a lot of publicity at this time of year (almost like they planned it that way), but is this commercial really the type that rates well on Ad Meter? I don't believe so.

It's too bad they split up Bud and Bud Light, because they are really a powerhouse. Unless someone digs up some more commercials, the only one I'd consider playing here is Doritos +550.

Half-Time Show - Will Big Ben hit on Fergie? (Will Ben Roethlisberger be seen talking to Fergie during half-time?)

SportsInteraction:

Yes, +1500

Okay, I think it's time to stop. Enjoy the game.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLIV Props

Welcome to the third annual edition of our Super Bowl proposition bet coverage. I was hoping to wait out for BetUS and SportsBetting to post some interesting props before writing this, but they are really slacking. I'll have to include those in another post if they come up with anything good in the next couple days. For now it's mostly Bodog (as usual), with appearances from Sports Interaction and Bookmaker.

How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem?

Bodog:
Over 1m 42s: +130
Under 1m 42s: -160

Sports Interaction:

Over 1m 38.5s: -125
Under 1m 38.5s: -115
It would be fun to go for the middle here, but the juice on U1:42 is just way too much. Looking at the variety of videos on YouTube of Underwood singing the Anthem, it looks like on average she comes in a bit under the Bodog total, but certainly not enough to pay the -165. Both of these lines seem about fair to me after considering the juice.

What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team? (Bodog)
Lime Green: +600
Yellow: -125
Orange: +550
Red: +1250
Blue: +1250
Clear/Water: +160
Prior to last year, clear/water was riding a three Super Bowl winning streak, but that was snapped when the Steelers dumped yellow Gatorade on Tomlin. There may be some value in clear/water at +160, but I would hold off to see if BetUS posts anything, since last year they had that option at an absurd +700, which was a great price even though it lost.
Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game thank first? (Bodog)
God: -105
Family: +650
Teammates: +115
Coach: +1000
Does not thank anyone: +450

I think there's value in "doesn't thank anyone" here. Holmes didn't last year, and neither did Eli when they beat the Pats. At that point everything is just so disorganized, I think betting on chaos is the way to go. It's kind of strange that "doesn't thank anyone" is +450 given its success the last two SBs, but I get the feeling that most people don't pay a whole lot of attention to these things on a year-to-year basis.

How Many Times will CBS show Archie Manning on TV during the Game? (Bodog)
Over 4: -130
Under 4: EV

CNBC's Darren Rovell has had good coverage of this one, which actually opened at 2.5. According to Rovell's post, that opening number was based on a similar prop for Brenda Warner last year, but Bodog failed to consider Archie's Saints ties. They took a lot of action on O2.5, and eventually moved it all the way up to the number listed above.

I don't have any further analysis, just thought that was interesting.

Which CBS Show will get the most Promo’s during the game? (For a show to be counted it must appear in a picture box on the screen during the game broadcast only.) (Bodog)
Undercover Boss: -220
CSI: +625
CSI Miami: +450
NCIS: +525
NCIS LA: +1200
Big Bang Theory: +1500
How I Met Your Mother: +900
Two and a Half Men: +1500

Undercover Boss is a new CBS reality show that will be debuting immediately after the game. It actually opened at EV, but apparently received a lot of action at that price and moved significantly since then.

And with good reason, I think; the combination of being a new show and coming on immediately after the game has to give it a huge advantage. It's not like you have to leave this up to random chance either, which is always a problem when playing a big favorite. The CBS executives are in complete control of how many times they mention each show during the game, and you'd have to think that it'll be very frequent for a new show in that time slot.

Pinata Pick - Match Peyton's total pass yds and we'll pay 44/1 (Sports Interaction)

This would be a fun one to play, but there's no value here regardless of which number you pick. Here are Pinnacle's odds on his total passing yards:

0 to 100: +1000 (6.0%)
101 to 190: +600 (9.5%)
191 to 245: +400 (13.3%)
246 to 299: +180 (23.8%)
300 to 325: +220 (20.8%)
326 or more: +150 (26.6%)

When you consider how many yards are in each group, "300 to 325" is the sweet spot, with each of those single yards being about 125:1. Pinnacle also has the O/U on his passing yards at 308.5, with the under favored -118/+102. So if you're going to play this I'd go with 304 or so, but that's definitely -EV.

What will be the highest rated commercial on the USA Today Super Bowl Ad Meter?
Bodog:
Anheuser-Busch/Budweiser: -160
GoDaddy.com: +800
Career Builder: +800
Coca-Cola: +700
Family First: +1200
Doritos: +200
Other: +260

Bookmaker (under "Entertainment"):
Anheuser-Busch: +900
Pepsico's Frito-Lay (Doritos): +1650
33 other options: here

I think there is tremendous value in Anheuser-Busch and Doritos at Bookmaker here, and it goes beyond just comparing their odds to Bodog's. Busch won ten years in a row before Doritos broke their impressive streak last year. Even in defeat, Busch showed very strong, with their ads placing both second and third. In 2008 Busch placed first, fifth, and sixth, with Doritos coming in fourth. And in 2007 the two companies dominated the standings, monopolizing the top seven spots. Even at +900, Busch actually has the shortest odds of any of Bookmaker's 35 options; it's like BM was aware that they should be the favorite, but had now idea just how dominant they've been.

As for this year's game, the Clydesdales won't be appearing, but Busch has purchased five minutes worth of ads, and their non-Clydesdale commercials have scored well in the past. Doritos is running a similar contest to the one that landed them the top spot last year; they'll have three commercials during the game.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLIII Props

Not in list form like last year, but I was inspired by our discussion in the comments, and think I found some actual value.

If Barack Obama Picks a team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Super Bowl pre-game show on NBC will the Presidents pick be correct? (SportsBetting)
Yes: -160
No: +130

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre Game Show? (Bodog)
Yes: -225
No: +185

I'm not ready for a world where Matt Millen knows more about football than Barack Obama.

I think the most value here lies in Millen getting it wrong, and not (just) because he's not very bright. According to the Pinnacle moneyline, the Steelers have a 69.1% chance of winning, and the Cardinals are at 30.9%. For +185 to be +EV, you only need to win 35.1% of the time. Arizona has been getting a lot of love over the last couple weeks; there needs to be only an 11% chance of Millen taking the Cardinals for there to be value here*. I think there is.

Will [Larry Fitzgerald] make a one-handed reception in Super Bowl XLIII (No Reception=No Action) (SportsBetting)
Yes: +220
No: -300

You'd have to go with no here, right? This seems like as good a time as any to fade Fitzgeraled, since he's been getting so much love (and deservedly so). But is there really a 1 in 4 chance that he makes a one-handed catch on Sunday? Probably not the type of thing you'd want to lay -300 on, I guess.

During the Singing of The Star Spangled Banner will Jennifer Hudson Lip-Sync any part of the Song (SportsBetting)
Yes: +115
No: -145

Is it really all that common for people to be caught lip-syncing the National Anthem? Does Jennifer Hudson have a reputation for doing this? I have no idea, but I'd have to lean "No" here.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game Thank First?
SportsBetting:
Coach: +900
Doesn't thank anyone: +500
Family: +400
God: -125
Teammates: +200

BetUS:
God: -150
Coach: +800
Family: +400
Teammates: +200
Does not thank anyone: +500

God was +250 last year. I wonder what changed. Does anyone even know who Eli thanked? That's the problem with some of these, you never remember what the result was. Last year I was in transit during the pregame show and was frantically texting people trying to figure out if anyone picked the Giants (Caliendo did, apparently).

How Long will it take Jennifer Hudson to Sing the Star Spangled Banner (from starting note to last note sung)
SportsBetting:
Over 2 minutes and 1 second: -155
Under 2 minutes and 1 second: +125

Bodog:
Over 2m 1s: -160
Under 2m 1s: +130

BetUS:
Over 2m 3s: -115
Under 2m 3s: -115

I'm glad they clarified how it will be timed, I never would've guessed. There would be a nice middle here except for all the juice on the over. Unfortunately I don't have a half-point calculator for this type of things (half-second calculator?), but I'm pretty confident in saying there's no value in going for the middle.

Coin Toss (VIP)
Heads: +100
Tails: +100

VIP is also offering the game itself without juice, but that wouldn't have really fallen under the "props" category. What's interesting to me is that they also have a rewards system based on how much you bet. So why wouldn't you just bet half your account on either side, end up with the same amount of money, and get a bunch of rewards points?

For the record, the coin toss is a 50-50 proposition everywhere except Pinnacle, where the Cardinals are still slightly favored. And I couldn't get a straight answer for Pinny about what happened, beyond "We favor the Cardinals".

Color of Gatorade dumped on the Winning Head Coach
BetUS:
Lime Green: +400
Yellow: +200
Orange: +500
Red: +500
Clear/Water: +700
Blue: -130

Bodog:
Lime Green: +450
Yellow: +200
Orange: +300
Red: +550
Blue: +900
Clear/Water: +115

This is interesting just because of the huge discrepancy at the two books on the "clear/water" option. Thanks to the research of Stock Lemon, we know that "clear/water" has been the winner in each of the last three Super Bowls. I think there is significant value here. And this way you can be sure you'll have a rooting interesting until the bitter end. The maximum you can risk on this prop is $50.

Springsteen- 1st song of the Halftime show (Bodog)
Born in the USA: EV
The Rising: +500
The Wrestler: +700
Radio Nowhere: +800
I'm on Fire: +1500
Born to Run: +200
Glory Day: +250

I have no idea, I just figured I should include something about the halftime show. There is certainly nothing even approaching last year's Tom Petty props.

What Super Bowl Game Betting Line will Al Michaels allude to or mention first during the Game? (Bodog)
Pointspread: -500
Total: +350

Michaels is a fan of alluding to the line. I guess this means something like, "Some folks in Vegas will be happy about that" after a meaningless touchdown at the end of the game counts. No idea if there's any value here, but if forced I'd probably go with total.

How many food items will John Madden mention during the game? (Bodog)
Over 1.5: -280
Under 1.5: +220

The funny part about this is they easily could've put it at a higher number and had steep juice on the Under. However, I'm sure they figured it would be more amusing if the Over on how many food items Madden mentions was a huge favorite. Mission accomplished.

* - .691*.89 + .309*.11 = a 65% chance of him being right, or 35% chance of him being wrong.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLII Props

There are plenty of props concerning the game on the field next Sunday. Who will score first, who'll be the MVP, even who will commit the first holding penalty. But it's the Super Bowl- who cares about the actual game? There are much more important things going on.

I looked around a few places for the best non-football props, but ended up only needing two sites- BetUS and Bodog. The following are the seven most ridiculous types of props I found. I tried to break down what the best wagers are, but I probably failed miserably.

7. How long will it take Jordin Sparks to sing the National anthem? (Bodog)

Over 1m42s (-115)
Under 1m 42s (-115)

Sparks sang the Anthem at last year's NBA Finals. It's on YouTube- it looks like she took 1:41. Darren Rovell analyzed this same line for Billy Joel last year, and noticed this:

"I looked at every Super Bowl national anthem YouTube could offer me. And guess what? Not one singer, at least what's online, has ever done the National Anthem at the Super Bowl under 1:44."

He goes on to note that Cher did it in 1:45, Mariah Carey in 1:55, Faith Hill at 2:00, and Beyonce in 2:09. These Super Bowl performers apparently add some extra "yeahs" and such- it looks like the Over would be a decent look here.

6. Commercial Props (Bodog)

BetUS has some boring ones, like the first ad during halftime (Bud Light and Go Daddy are both 4:1). But Bodog got creative:

Which Super Bowl commercial will have a higher rating on USA Today's annual Ad Meter?
Budweiser 1:2
Go Daddy.com 3:1
Pepsi 6:1
McDonald's 9:1
Victoria Secret 8:1
Other 2:1

Looks like Budweiser is the reigning champ. I'm assuming Budweiser includes Bud Light; those two combined to have six of the top seven ads last year. So it makes sense that Bud is the overwhelming favorite.

5. TV Broadcast Props (Bodog)

How Many Times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's name during the Broadcast?
Over 5.5 (-125)
Under 5.5 (-115)

How many times will Archie Manning be shown on the TV Broadcast?
Over 4.5 (-150)
Under 4.5 (+110)

Will the entire Fox pre-game team pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl?
Yes -180
No +140

I don't really understand the Peyton prop. If Buck says "Eli's brother, Peyton, won the Super Bowl last year. Manning...", does that count as one or two? I don't know.

For the pre-game picks prop, I'd have to go with "No". How many people are there on the set, four? I would think one of them will go against the grain, if only to make things interesting. Terry Bradshaw picked the Giants last week, so he'd be the one to do it.

Update: Lozo makes an excellent point in the comments:

"no. 5 being no is a lock. only because whoever works the giants locker room after the game will take the giants. that's the only reason bradshaw took the giants last week, and he'll probably do it again this week."

4. '72 Dolphins Props (Bodog)

If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the '72 Dolphins during the Trophy Presentation?
Yes (-135)
No (-105)
Will Don Shula be on the field to shake Belichick's hand after the game?
Yes +200
No -300

Why would Kraft mention the '72 Dolphins? They really haven't done anything to deserve a mention. I'd lean towards "No" on that first one.

I'm assuming Shula lives in Florida? Why would he go to the game in Arizona just to shake Belichick's hand? I guess that's why "No" is -300.

3. Who will the MVP of the Game thank first? (Bodog)

Teammates, 2:1
God, 5:2
Family, 2:1
Coach, 5:1
Doesn't thank anyone, 6:1

I looked around Google for Brady's acceptance speech the two times he's won the award, but couldn't find it. I actually think betting on the first two wouldn't be a bad idea, I would imagine it'd end up being one of those.

2. Colour of liquid winning Head Coach is doused in (BetUS)

Transparent +400
Green +500
Yellow +300
Orange +125
Red +300
Blue +1000
Purple +1600

I don't really have any insight to add here. This one is pretty awesome, though.

1. Tom Petty Props (BetUS)

Petty will be performing at halftime. There are the standard props on this sort of thing- what song he will open with (Running Down A Dream is the favorite at BetUS), and end with (Free Falling is 2:3 at Bodog). But those pale in comparison to the random props BetUS has thought up:

Tom Petty...
smokes a joint during half time show +2500
has a wardrobe malfunction +10000
streaks field during play +50000
will smash a guitar onstage +5000
will curse during performance +8000

I'm confused as to how the joint prop is the most likely. Tom Petty cannot smoke a joint during his performance. It's just not a possibility. Also, what exactly would a Tom Petty ""wardrobe malfunction" consist of? I don't think I want to know.

He could curse. But because of the "wardrobe malfunction" thing, they've got a delay now. So if he curses, but it gets edited out, what happens? There are just so many unanswered questions here.

Update: I e-mailed BetUS about the cursing thing, here's the response I got:

"Dear Jacob, Thank you for your question. For it to be graded as a winner, Tom Petty cursing needs to be shown either on tv, on the newspaper the day after, internet, etc. The point is, it needs to be of public knowledge that he did for you to win that bet. Regards, Rick Account Manager"

I think this is good news for this bet. It'll be all over the internet if he curses, even if it's not broadcast.

Update 2: The odds on two of the Tom Petty props have been adjusted. The joint one is now +4000, and cursing is down to +5000. I'd like to think that this post had something to do with that.

Update 3: Smokes a joint is now 100:1, cursing is down to 20:1, and all is right in the world.