How Not To Handicap A Prop Bet (2013 Edition, V2)

Barnwell, Vegas, props, #notthattricky, etc etc etc. Go:

The NFL season might have started yesterday, but today is the day for my annual NFL over/under and assorted (likely losing) bets column.

Life is so great. What did I ever do to deserve this?

This is the third year I've done this column for Grantland...

Absolutely mind blowing that this guy has been allowed to write about wagering on sports for more than a paragraph, let alone three years.

As a result, a line that opened with the Chiefs over 7.5 wins at a price of -115 rose to the point where it ranged from -175 to -195 at the books I visited during my week in town.

This sentence may not seem notable now, but please remember it for later.

Last year, the bets I chose to make would have lost 5 percent of their value had I not been robbed of the tickets.

I had honestly forgotten this ever even happened. What a pro. I'm the single least responsible person you will ever meet and I've never lost a ticket in my life.

Let's get started with one that looks great right now!

Okay Bill, I'm ready for some math. Let's do this.

How Not To Handicap A Prop Bet (2013 Edition)

Second annual!

For the most part, you don't see things with lots of obvious factual errors or inconsistencies posted on major online publications. This is because editors exist. However, an exception to this rule can be made for topics relating to sports betting. There's really no reason to think an editor would know anything about math, let alone gambling.

On this topic, the editors probably assume that the writer knows more than they do, and just focus on spelling, punctuation, sentence structure, etc. Especially if the writer previously wrote for a stats-focused football website, and lived in Vegas during the 2011 NFL season, the editor assumes that the writer must have at least a basic grasp on simple concepts relating to math and betting.

Boy, are they mistaken. Take it away, Bill Barnwell:

Will there be overtime?
Yes: +700
No: -1000

Vegas normally gives the team at home an average of three points on the spread, so if the 49ers were at home, we'd expect this line to be 49ers -6.5; if they were in Baltimore, the line would be 49ers -0.5.

This makes no sense. I honestly don't understand how this isn't ridiculously obvious to anyone who thinks about it for more than two seconds. For the eight millionth time: ALL POINTS IN THE NFL ARE NOT OF EQUAL VALUE. Teams win by three a bit more often than they win by five. You can't just blindly add or subtract three from the spread.

This becomes especially clear when Barnwell claims that the spread would be 49ers -0.5 in Baltimore. So, if HFA was worth four points, that spread would be 49ers +0.5 which is...the exact same thing (in the playoffs). But we made HFA worth 33% more, how did it not change? It's lazy and wrong to calculate it this way.

Bet on a specific margin of victory.
Ravens win by 1-4 points: +450
49ers win by 1-4 points: +350

If you really thought the game was going to be close, you could bet $100 on either side of this line and basically get +300 odds that the game was going to finish with one team winning by three points or fewer, since you'd win $250 if the Niners prevailed by 1-4 points (the $350 prescribed in the odds above minus $100 for a losing bet on the Ravens winning by 1-4 points) and $350 if the Ravens won by 1-4 points.

So, by betting $100 on either side, we are risking a total of $200, to win either $250 or $350. And we are claiming this is the equivalent to getting +300? Huh? What just happened?

Also, I'm pretty sure "1-4 points" and "three points or fewer" are not the same thing.

Total number of different 49ers to score
Over 3.5: -130
Under 3.5: +110

A defensive or special teams touchdown would make this one really likely to succeed, so you could parlay the +165 odds on that occurring with the Over 3.5 odds here if you wanted.

This is similar to last year's Gronkowski example, where Barnwell says one simple thing that immediately makes it clear he doesn't understand anything.

Parlaying these two is a great idea, except for one small problem, which is clearly stated on the LVH odds sheet that Barnwell links to:

***STRAIGHT BETS ONLY---NO PARLAYS ON THESE PROPS

Of course you can't parlay these. If you could, it would basically be printing money, since lots of them are very correlated. If you could, it would be ridiculous to only mention it in one throwaway line of a post, because it would be such a profitable strategy that it would render every other aspect of props-related analysis completely irrelevant. But:

***STRAIGHT BETS ONLY---NO PARLAYS ON THESE PROPS

Moving on.

Will there be a safety?
Yes: +900
No: -1300

This was my biggest prop bet loss last year. I laid out the logic suggesting that betting "No" was a good play, followed through with a bet, and managed to lose within seven minutes of the opening whistle. It was such a big loss that I needed to win every other one of my prop bets to break even (and that didn't happen, either).

Just wanted to cut in real quick and mention that this is my favorite part of this whole train wreck. But sorry, continue educating us, Bill.

But here, again, I'm going to point out why the "No" bet is the right one. Over the past five years, there have been 1,280 NFL regular-season games and 82 safeties, suggesting that safeties will occur in 6.4 percent of games. The odds above suggest, after adjusting for the vig, that safeties will occur in 9.7 percent of games. Furthermore, the most likely scenario that leads to a safety — a quarterback getting sacked in the end zone — is unlikely to occur, since these two teams have had relatively anemic pass rushes during the playoffs. So, again, I think there's value in betting "No" here.

What the fuck is this?

The price that gets you to a breakeven of 9.7% is -931. So, yeah, "no safety" would be a good bet at -931. The thing is, and this should really be clear to anyone that can read, the odds on "no" are not -931. They are -1300. So, the 9.7% is completely irrelevant when you're deciding whether or not to bet. The number we should be using is 7.1%, which is really not that close to 9.7% at all; in fact, it's quite close to 6.4%!

I really hope there's a safety.

How will the opening coin toss land?
Heads: -102
Tails: -102

This is basically a sobriety/IQ test from Vegas to see if you're interested in giving them free money. The LVH actually moved the vig on this up from one cent (-101/-101) a year ago to two cents this year, suggesting that they think they can get just as much action on this bet with the extra juice.

Not much to see here, just your basic absence of logic. The vig is twice as high now, of course they don't need to get the same amount of action for this to be a good idea.

How long will Colin Kaepernick's first rushing attempt go?
Over 5.5 yards: -110
Under 5.5 yards: -110

If Kaepernick doesn't have a rushing attempt, the Under bet wins. If his first run is a kneel-down at the end of the first or second halves, the Under bet wins. The median run for Kaepernick this year is four yards, but the mode (most frequent) run for Kaepernick across his 81 carries is for seven yards.

The mode is completely irrelevant. Why are you bringing it up as a counter-argument against the lower median? It just doesn't matter at all, and offers no value beyond what the median gives you. Not that the median is even the best way to analyze this (the concept of looking at "distributions" seems to be generally lost on Bill). How do you possibly have a job where math is one of the core competencies?

Which color will the Gatorade/liquid dumped on the winning head coach be?
Clear/water: +175
Orange: +250
Yellow: +250
Green: +750
Red: +750
Blue: +750

Red just seems like such a great long shot when you consider that one of the teams wears red as its primary color. Finding purple Gatorade to soak John Harbaugh might be a little more difficult.

I realize most people don't/shouldn't take handicapping these silly prop bets as seriously as I do, but this is completely just making shit up. Since when do people choose the flavor of Gatorade they drink based on their team's colors? Why would they do that? It doesn't even make any sense.

How many times will the game be referred to as Harbaugh Bowl, Har Bowl, or Super Baugh during the game?
Over 2.5: -110
Under 2.5 -110

Someone is going to get paid by an online sportsbook during the game to watch the contest and just listen for whether the announcers refer to it by any of the above names. What a wonderful, dumb world we live in. This seems low to me, even if the Harbaugh family isn't in attendance; one video package might be enough to knock this one out.

Rules? What rules?

From kick off until final whistle. Live pictures only, any taped pictures or past video does not count towards wager. Half time does not count towards wager. Must say full name. Book manager's decision is final.

Good work, Bill.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLVII Props

Sixth annual! Let's get to it:

Section 1: Standard Nonsense

What will be the result of Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

5Dimes:
Heads, -101
Tails, -101

YouWager:
Heads, -115
Tails, -115

Not much analysis to do here, obviously (well, maybe not obvious to everybody), just wanted to include the best and worst odds I've seen. Unfortunately nobody is offering plus money on either side this year (it's been as high as +103 in the past).

Anyway, just wanted to note how absurd it is to offer -115 on a coin toss when you offer -110 on sides, which are somewhat more predictable than, you know, a coin flip. If you're looking for a summary of coin toss results at each of the previous 46 Super Bowls (?), you can always count on Stockle Mon.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first?

Bodog:
Teammates, +140
God, +250
Coach, +1200
Family, +1200
Owner, +2000
Does Not Thank Anyone, +190

Sportsbook:
God, EV
Teammates, +175
Coaches/Owner, +400
Family, +500
Does Not Thank Anyone, +300

SportsBetting:
God, EV
Teammates, +200
Coach, +300
Parents, +600
Fans, +600

An old friend. Eli didn't thank anyone when we won last year, so adding that to last year's chart, the winner has clearly been "Does Not Thank Anyone" in four of the past five years. And that's really more like 4.5/5, since some books graded it as a winner when Rodgers won two years ago. So at +190/+300, that is clearly the way to go on this one.

Very disappointing that SBET is not offering "Does Not Thank Anyone" as one of their options.

Who will the winning Super Bowl coach thank first?

Sportsbook:
Team, -150
God, +120
Coaching Staff/Owner, +450
Family, +450
Does Not Thank Anyone, +800

Same deal as above (see chart). There was some controversy on this one last year, but Sportsbook did grade DNTA as the winner.

What Color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?

Bodog/SportsInteraction:
Clear/Water, +175
Orange, +250
Yellow, +250
Blue, +650
Green, +650
Red, +650

Sportsbook:
Clear/Water, +150
Yellow, +150
Orange, +250
Red, +500
Lime Green, +550
Blue, +1000

I think these odds are reasonable, to the extent that betting on Gatorade being dumped on a grown man can be "reasonable". The Giants dumped purple Gatorade on Coughlin last year, which is (still) not even a listed color. "Clear" had a great run from 2005-2008, but it's now lost four times in a row, so that is sad.

Section 2: Alicia Keys

How long will it take Alicia Keys to sing the National Anthem?

Bodog:
Over 2:12, EV
Under 2:12, -140

SportsInteraction:
Over 2:12, -120
Under 2:12, -120

Sportsbook:
Over 2:05, EV
Under 2:05, -130

5Dimes:
Over 2:05, -170
Under 2:05, +130

5Dimes:
Over 2:12, +190
Under 2:12, -270

This is is the highest the Anthem O/U has been since I started doing these posts; in the past it's been between 1:34 and 2:01. The reason that folks are expecting such a lengthy Anthem seems clear:

“Wait till you hear this one,” Keys said with a wink. ”You’ll see. I’m gonna do it in a way that only I can do.”

So that should be interesting, and could affect the props below. But for this one, between the uncertainty with her approach and lack of research materials, it's hard to know. When in doubt, just go for the available arbs/middles.

Will Alicia Keys forget or omit at least 1 word of the official US National Anthem?

Bodog:
Yes, +170
No, -250

5Dimes:
Yes, +190
No, -270

Will Alicia Keys add at least 1 NEW word of the official US National Anthem?

Bodog:
Yes, +200
No, -300

Will Alicia Keys play a piano during her rendition of the National Anthem?

SportsInteraction:
Yes, -600
No, +250

Quite a bit going on here. For not omitting a word, -250 seems pretty short. I think this is due to a) Aguilera screwing up two years ago, and b) Keys' aforementioned promise to mix it up a bit. But really, what Aguilera did seems pretty irrelevant, and while getting creative certainly increases the odds of a mistake, it's not like she can't practice in advance. I'd go with "No" on that one.

Will Alicia Keys be booed during or after her rendition of the National Anthem?

Bodog:
Yes, +500
No, OTB

Would definitely stay away here. I'm not sure what exactly would have to happen for a Super Bowl crowd in New Orleans to boo the Anthem, but I'd say there's under a 16.7% chance that it happens here.

Section 3: Beyoncé

What predominant color will Beyonce's top be at the beginning of the Super Bowl halftime show?

Bodog:
Black, +225
Gold/Yellow: +275
Sliver/Grey: +350
White: +500
Red: +650
Pink: +750
Orange: +1200
Blue: +1500
Green: +1500

SportsInteraction:
Gold, +250
Black, +300
Silver, +300
Red, +300
White, +600
Yellow, +750
Blue, +750
Green, +1000
Purple, +1000
Pink, +1000

BK is from Texas (sorry), so I think we can rule out 49ers and Ravens colors. Doesn't get us very far though. Honestly, I don't have much of an opinion here, just thought it was important to make a really forced reference and post the lines.

Will Beyonce be joined by Jay-Z on stage during the Super Bowl halftime show?

Bodog:
Yes, +110
No, -150

Will Hill:
Yes, +200
No, OTB

Another arb. Not sure what to do with this one beyond that; maybe there will be an angle on the Beyonce props coming out of her press conference (3pm EST on Thursday).

Will Beyonce's hair be curly/crimped or straight at the beginning of the Super Bowl halftime show?

Bodog:
Straight, +110
Curly/Crimped, -150

As we have seen with the "Thanks" props, there can be some controversy on how these unusual props are graded. On the subject of Beyonce's hair, however, Bodog is getting out in front of this issue. This prop includes a link to a separate page, with examples of Beyonce with curly, crimped, and straight hair.

Will Beyonce be showing cleavage during her first song?

SportsBetting:
Yes, -500
No, +300

Okay, probably time to move on.

Section 4: The Harbaughs

There are a LOT of these. Most of them seem pretty dumb. For example:

Attire - Both coaches wearing hats (will be graded in first quarter):

Yes, -1000
No, +600

I realize you could say this same thing about this entire post, but: who cares???

How many times will Harbaugh be said during the game?

Bodog:
Over 20.5, -140
Under 20.5, +110

This would at least be fun to keep track of, and/or a good drinking game. No real opinion though; once about every three minutes seems reasonable.

How long will the postgame handshake/hug last between Jim and John Harbaugh?

Bodog:
Over 7 seconds, -120
Under 7 seconds, -120

The "sharp" money has come in on the under thus far, as this one has come down from 7.5 seconds. I'd still go with the under -- that's a pretty long hug -- but they are brothers, and I'm sure there will be a decent amount of chatting involved, so who knows.

How many times will the game be referred to as the Harbaugh Bowl or Har Bowl or Super Baugh during the game?

From kick off until final whistle. Live pictures only, any taped pictures or past video does not count towards wager. Half time does not count towards wager. Must say full name. Book manager's decision is final.

Bodog:
Over 2.5, EV
Under 2.5, -140

Included the fine print on this one since it seemed important. I would go under here. The game is on CBS, and in the past they haven't messed around much with nonsense like this. Add in the fact that pre-kickoff and halftime aren't included, and that all of these names are completely ridiculous/worthless, and I think this comes in at two or fewer.

Section 5: Miscellaneous 

How many times will Jay-Z be shown on TV during the game?

Bodog:
Over 0.5, -120
Under 0.5, -120

Same fine print as the "Har Bowl" prop. I would also go under here, since CBS does not generally pay much attention to celebrities during the actual game. My main concern would be that they show his wife in the second quarter when mentioning the halftime show, but it seems unlikely that they'd be sitting together at that point.

If Ray Lewis is interviewed on TV after the game on the field or in the locker room how may times will he mention "God/Lord"?

Bodog:
Over 3, -120
Under 3, -120

"Does Not Thank Anyone" is in some serious trouble if Ray wins the MVP.

What will be the highest tweet per second during the Super Bowl?

Bodog:
Over 17,000, -140
Under 17,000, EV

This one opened at 15,000, so has been bet up a bit. It looks like last year's game peaked at 12,223 TPS, which was up from 4,064 two years ago. A bit more recently, the Euro 2012 final maxed out at 15,358 TPS. These odds seem pretty reasonable, it probably just depends on whether there's one play that's especially notable. If there's something like Flacco-to-Jones for 70 yards on Sunday that would likely crush all these numbers.

Enjoy the game.

This Is Also Completely Wrong

Same article:

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?
Yes: -160
No: +140

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown in the first half?
Yes: +175
No: -200

These two bets, taken together, are a very weird mix. The given likelihood of Gronkowski scoring a touchdown in the first half is just 35.3 percent, but his odds of scoring a touchdown in the game are at 59.6 percent. Those two numbers imply that Gronkowski will score in the second half about 92.1 percent of the time, and that a bet on Gronkowski not scoring in the second half would have true odds of about +1166 or so. I hope somebody offers that.

I have no idea. 92.1%? I don't know, man.

Eighth(?) grade probability time!

The setup:

The math:

.647 * x = .404
x = .624
1-x = .376

The result:

So illogical!!!!

Doing the math wrong...whatever. But doing the math wrong, getting an answer that MAKES NO SENSE, assuming you are correct, and just going with it? And if those two lines were truly implying something insane for the 2H, wouldn't one side of the 1H or FG line have to be way off, too? So...maybe look into that?

How Not To Handicap A Prop Bet

I still can't believe Barnwell actually wrote this:

What will the jersey number be of the first player to score a touchdown?
Over 80.5: EVEN
Under 80.5: -120

Few things have made me question my life decisions more than putting together a spreadsheet to answer this question. But I did it, taking every player who has scored for these two teams this year, removing guys who aren't going to play on Sunday, adjusting for the games they played in and missed. It was so fucking stupid on so many levels. But I did it. And in the end, I got an expected number of … 64.4. Great, so an offensive lineman is likely to score on Sunday! In reality, it just suggests that the running backs for the teams are likely a little undervalued here, and that logic only goes further with a possibly-limited Gronkowski (number 87). Go under here, but realize that we're all losers for playing.

I have no interest in legitimately handicapping this (I guess that makes two of us), so I just adjusted the numbers for people listed at Pinny to make them fit to "an expected number of ... 64.4":

As noted, the weighted average of these is 64.4. Based on this information, Bill Barnwell recommended the under. Hopefully the reason that this is horrendous analysis is really obvious.

If you do this really sophisticated thing called adding, however, you get 48.5% for the under. With the exact same data set. With a line of -120. So an ROI of -11.1%. Sometimes referred to as lighting money on fire. While, based on that same (made up) data, the other side is +EV, with a 51.5% bet being offered at +100.

I don't really have a point to close with here, so:

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLVI Props

Fifth annual, and still going strong(?). Here we go:

Who will win the Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:
Giants, +102
Patriots, +102

What will be the result of Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:
Heads, +102
Tails, +102

Not quite as good as last year, but this is still one of my favorites.

Will Gisele Bundchen be shown on TB during the game?
From kickoff to final whistle, live pictures only, halftime does not count.

Bodog:
Yes, -160
No, +120

5Dimes:
Yes, -215
No, +165

Arb! I tried to research this one but gave up after finding a fake Gisele Super Bowl blog and discovering that she is supposedly on her way to becoming very, very wealthy.

I went with "Yes, -160" at Bodog, which I cannot back up with math.

Who will be shown first?

SportsBetting:
Giselle Bundchen, -125
Abby Manning, -105

SportsInteraction
Giselle Bundchen, -120
Abby Manning, -120

I don't get why Giselle isn't favored by more; isn't she a LOT more famous than Eli's wife?

Who will the MVP thank first?

This one is the best. Sportsbook also has the same prop for winning coach rather than MVP, and is offering "Does Not Thank Anyone" at +800. My unofficial summary from the last four years:

Last year some books graded it as Rodgers thanking the defense (teammates), and some graded "Does Not Thank Anyone" as a winner since he didn't say the word "thank". Either way, +250 continues to be a great price, available across the board.

Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach?

Not sure about this one. It's been orange the last two years, but yellow and clear the two before that; Stockle Mon has a more extensive summary. Since it was clear/water the last time each of these teams won and four of the last nine dumps, that seems like the best pick here if you can get the +215.

Will Kelly Clarkson omit/forget a word of the National Anthem?

5Dimes:
Yes, +700
No, -1500

Bodog:
Yes, +300

Inspired by last year's mishap. No real opinion here; if anything I'd take the +700 at 5D, but probably just stay away.

How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem?

5Dimes:
Over 1:34, +100
Under 1:34, -140

Sportsbook:
Over 1:35, -115
Under 1:35, -115

Bodog:
Over 1:34, -120
Under 1:34, -120

SportsInteraction:
Over 134.5, -115
Under 134.5, -125

Stockle Mon has also researched this one quite a bit (good work!), and it doesn't seem like there's much of an edge. So, when in doubt, line shop. Here is my completely-made-up estimate of the probability of the total time being within each second:
The thought behind the skew was that 1:34 is a pretty low time, so there's more room to go way higher than way lower.

That was an unbelievable waste of time, but it does allow me to see if a middle might be worthwhile:

That's assuming the 5Dimes line is efficient (which is not true at all), but you can shift the graph around a bit and you still come out ahead, so I went for the O1:34/U1:35 middle.

Which city will receive a higher TV ratings (market share)?

Bodog:
Boston -7, -120
New York +7, -120

Reader Will W. recommended this one, noting that he laid the chalk. Wikipedia tells us that Boston won by 14 four years ago (81-67), although it seems possible that was a bit inflated since the Pats were 18-0.

There are also a bunch of props on what Madonna will wear/do at halftime, but I don't have much to add to those.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLV Props

The fourth annual edition! Let's get right into it:

Who will win the Super Bowl XLV Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:

Steelers, +103
Packers, +103

Start off with an easy one. Plenty of shops are offering reduced juice on the coin toss (how generous!), but SBET is the only place I've seen plus money on either side, let alone both.

First team to kickoff will be?

Pinnacle:

Steelers -125
Packers +107

Does Pittsburgh have a tendency to defer to the second half? Pinnacle isn't in the business of just making stuff up (well, not usually), so there's likely a good reason this isn't 50-50, but I'm not sure where to look that up.

Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach?

I used to think I had this one figured out -- it was clear/water for three consecutive years -- but not anymore, as C/W has lost the last two SBs and its odds have also come down. Tomlin is "not a proponent" of the Gatorade dump, so it may not happen at all, but that seems unlikely.

I went through the entire Yahoo! galleries for both conference title games (240 photos total!) and didn't see a drop of Gatorade, so no help there. Taking the best odds for each color, these only add up to 103%, so they're very beatable, but I'm just not sure where.

What side of the ball will the players that perform the Gatorade shower be from?

BetUS:

Offense, +130
Defense, -170

Bodog:

Offense, +150
Defense, -200

Sportsbook:

Offense, +165

Defense, -225

I definitely lean toward the defense here, although it's tough to know how much juice it's actually worth paying. Logic dictates that the defensive players are significantly more likely, since there are a lot more of them on the sideline when the offense is kneeling, but the books have adjusted to this seemingly obvious fact over the last couple years.

Time on the Game Clock When the Winning Team Attempts to Dump Gatorade on Head Coach

Sportsbook:

Over 45 seconds left in 4Q, +115
Under 45 seconds left in 4Q, -145

They do love these Gatorade props, and this is a new one. There are actually a lot of variables in play here. Will the game be close? Even if it is, will there be at least two kneel downs at the end? If there are, will the Gatorade be dumped after the last one, or prior to that. This opened at -120/-120, so I think it was bet in the right direction, but I can't find much value here.

Who will MVP thank 1st?

I love this one. The odds have come down a bit on "Does Not Thank Anyone", but not nearly enough, particularly at Sportsbook. For at least the last four years, the MVP has not technically thanked anyone. This isn't because they're not grateful -- I suspect they are -- but because it'd just be weird to specifically thank a group in an interview unless the question is, "Who would you like to thank?". For example, here is what I said about the MVP's interview last year:

Brees was plenty gracious -- he said "God is great", and talked about how the Saints had the best ownership, best head coach, best GM, and best team -- but none of those counted.

A similar prop is being offered for the winning coach's interview at a couple places and I think there's value there as well: +350 at BetUS, and +400 at Sportsbook.

Length of National Anthem:

Bodog:

Over 1:54, -160
Under 1:54, +120

Sportsbook:

Over 1:54, -200
Under 1:54, +150

Bodog actually opened this at 1:50 last week, so it's clear that bettors have been favoring the over.

The most relevant example here is definitely Aguilera's performance during the NBA Finals last summer. I've got that one at 1:52, which makes U1:54 +150 quite intriguing. Going back a few years, I'm getting 1:58 for her rendition at what I believe was the 2004 NBA All-Star game. But the drums in the background of that one add some uncertainty, and she actually sang "home of the brave" twice.

For another data point, at a hockey game that supposedly took place in August of 2005, she made it through in a swift 1:44. I think there is value in the under at Sportsbook here.

How long will Christina Aguilera hold the note “Brave” at the end of the National Anthem?

Bodog:

Over 6 seconds, -140
Under 6 seconds, EV

Sportsbook:

Over 6 seconds, -130
Under 6 seconds, -110

This is a good one, although she was at exactly six seconds last summer despite strangely walking off before finishing, so not much of a lean here.

What will Fergie be wearing at halftime?

BetUS:

Pants (blow knees), +175
Shorts (above knees), +400
Skirt/dress, +135
Thong/G-String/Bikini bottom, +1500
Tight bodysuit, +150

"Tight bodysuit" was actually 7-1 when I originally pulled these odds on Monday night. I don't really have much else to say here, but figured I'd share these. Especially if we have a situation like the Kardashian one last year, where she announces what she's going to wear prior to the game.

Will a punt hit the scoreboard during the game?

Sportsbook:

Yes, +1000
No, -2500

Tough to get rich laying -2500 on props with $50 limits, but is there really a 3.8% chance that a punt hits the scoreboard? It's my understanding that when Trapasso hit it in the preseason, it was on purpose, and I can't imagine the punters are going to be messing around like that on Sunday. The fact that this didn't come up at all during the regular season makes it even more likely that Trapasso was just being difficult.

How many times will FOX mention "lockout" (from kickoff to final whistle)?

Bodog:

Over 1.5, -110
Under 1.5, -130

They originally had this at 2.5, which I thought was definitely high. At this point it's really a matter of whether the lockout is brought up at all, since if it is they'll likely say "lockout" more than once. My lean would still be toward the under; as with the "thanks" props, I just don't think there's really going to be an appropriate time to bring up the impending labor issues. I wouldn't even be surprised if Buck and Aikman were specifically asked to not mention it during the league's premier event.

Highest rated commercial on USA Today Ad Meter:

Bodog/Sportsbook:

Bud Light, +275
Budweiser, +275
Doritos, +550
GoDaddy.com, +1000
Pepsi Max, +600
Skechers, +1200
Teleflora, +1500
Other, +250

The most exciting prop from XLIV returns, but the odds seem a lot more reasonable this year (sadly Bookmaker has not gotten involved).

With its strong showings the last two years (#1 in '09, #2 in '10), Doritos is interesting at +550. You can actually watch the five finalists from their "Crash the Super Bowl" contest here; I thought the first one was quite funny, but the other four were very mediocre. The Pepsi Max commercials are on that same page, none of them really stood out to me.

GoDaddy always gets a lot of publicity at this time of year (almost like they planned it that way), but is this commercial really the type that rates well on Ad Meter? I don't believe so.

It's too bad they split up Bud and Bud Light, because they are really a powerhouse. Unless someone digs up some more commercials, the only one I'd consider playing here is Doritos +550.

Half-Time Show - Will Big Ben hit on Fergie? (Will Ben Roethlisberger be seen talking to Fergie during half-time?)

SportsInteraction:

Yes, +1500

Okay, I think it's time to stop. Enjoy the game.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLIV Props

Welcome to the third annual edition of our Super Bowl proposition bet coverage. I was hoping to wait out for BetUS and SportsBetting to post some interesting props before writing this, but they are really slacking. I'll have to include those in another post if they come up with anything good in the next couple days. For now it's mostly Bodog (as usual), with appearances from Sports Interaction and Bookmaker.

How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem?

Bodog:
Over 1m 42s: +130
Under 1m 42s: -160

Sports Interaction:

Over 1m 38.5s: -125
Under 1m 38.5s: -115
It would be fun to go for the middle here, but the juice on U1:42 is just way too much. Looking at the variety of videos on YouTube of Underwood singing the Anthem, it looks like on average she comes in a bit under the Bodog total, but certainly not enough to pay the -165. Both of these lines seem about fair to me after considering the juice.

What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team? (Bodog)
Lime Green: +600
Yellow: -125
Orange: +550
Red: +1250
Blue: +1250
Clear/Water: +160
Prior to last year, clear/water was riding a three Super Bowl winning streak, but that was snapped when the Steelers dumped yellow Gatorade on Tomlin. There may be some value in clear/water at +160, but I would hold off to see if BetUS posts anything, since last year they had that option at an absurd +700, which was a great price even though it lost.
Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game thank first? (Bodog)
God: -105
Family: +650
Teammates: +115
Coach: +1000
Does not thank anyone: +450

I think there's value in "doesn't thank anyone" here. Holmes didn't last year, and neither did Eli when they beat the Pats. At that point everything is just so disorganized, I think betting on chaos is the way to go. It's kind of strange that "doesn't thank anyone" is +450 given its success the last two SBs, but I get the feeling that most people don't pay a whole lot of attention to these things on a year-to-year basis.

How Many Times will CBS show Archie Manning on TV during the Game? (Bodog)
Over 4: -130
Under 4: EV

CNBC's Darren Rovell has had good coverage of this one, which actually opened at 2.5. According to Rovell's post, that opening number was based on a similar prop for Brenda Warner last year, but Bodog failed to consider Archie's Saints ties. They took a lot of action on O2.5, and eventually moved it all the way up to the number listed above.

I don't have any further analysis, just thought that was interesting.

Which CBS Show will get the most Promo’s during the game? (For a show to be counted it must appear in a picture box on the screen during the game broadcast only.) (Bodog)
Undercover Boss: -220
CSI: +625
CSI Miami: +450
NCIS: +525
NCIS LA: +1200
Big Bang Theory: +1500
How I Met Your Mother: +900
Two and a Half Men: +1500

Undercover Boss is a new CBS reality show that will be debuting immediately after the game. It actually opened at EV, but apparently received a lot of action at that price and moved significantly since then.

And with good reason, I think; the combination of being a new show and coming on immediately after the game has to give it a huge advantage. It's not like you have to leave this up to random chance either, which is always a problem when playing a big favorite. The CBS executives are in complete control of how many times they mention each show during the game, and you'd have to think that it'll be very frequent for a new show in that time slot.

Pinata Pick - Match Peyton's total pass yds and we'll pay 44/1 (Sports Interaction)

This would be a fun one to play, but there's no value here regardless of which number you pick. Here are Pinnacle's odds on his total passing yards:

0 to 100: +1000 (6.0%)
101 to 190: +600 (9.5%)
191 to 245: +400 (13.3%)
246 to 299: +180 (23.8%)
300 to 325: +220 (20.8%)
326 or more: +150 (26.6%)

When you consider how many yards are in each group, "300 to 325" is the sweet spot, with each of those single yards being about 125:1. Pinnacle also has the O/U on his passing yards at 308.5, with the under favored -118/+102. So if you're going to play this I'd go with 304 or so, but that's definitely -EV.

What will be the highest rated commercial on the USA Today Super Bowl Ad Meter?
Bodog:
Anheuser-Busch/Budweiser: -160
GoDaddy.com: +800
Career Builder: +800
Coca-Cola: +700
Family First: +1200
Doritos: +200
Other: +260

Bookmaker (under "Entertainment"):
Anheuser-Busch: +900
Pepsico's Frito-Lay (Doritos): +1650
33 other options: here

I think there is tremendous value in Anheuser-Busch and Doritos at Bookmaker here, and it goes beyond just comparing their odds to Bodog's. Busch won ten years in a row before Doritos broke their impressive streak last year. Even in defeat, Busch showed very strong, with their ads placing both second and third. In 2008 Busch placed first, fifth, and sixth, with Doritos coming in fourth. And in 2007 the two companies dominated the standings, monopolizing the top seven spots. Even at +900, Busch actually has the shortest odds of any of Bookmaker's 35 options; it's like BM was aware that they should be the favorite, but had now idea just how dominant they've been.

As for this year's game, the Clydesdales won't be appearing, but Busch has purchased five minutes worth of ads, and their non-Clydesdale commercials have scored well in the past. Doritos is running a similar contest to the one that landed them the top spot last year; they'll have three commercials during the game.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLIII Props

Not in list form like last year, but I was inspired by our discussion in the comments, and think I found some actual value.

If Barack Obama Picks a team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Super Bowl pre-game show on NBC will the Presidents pick be correct? (SportsBetting)
Yes: -160
No: +130

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre Game Show? (Bodog)
Yes: -225
No: +185

I'm not ready for a world where Matt Millen knows more about football than Barack Obama.

I think the most value here lies in Millen getting it wrong, and not (just) because he's not very bright. According to the Pinnacle moneyline, the Steelers have a 69.1% chance of winning, and the Cardinals are at 30.9%. For +185 to be +EV, you only need to win 35.1% of the time. Arizona has been getting a lot of love over the last couple weeks; there needs to be only an 11% chance of Millen taking the Cardinals for there to be value here*. I think there is.

Will [Larry Fitzgerald] make a one-handed reception in Super Bowl XLIII (No Reception=No Action) (SportsBetting)
Yes: +220
No: -300

You'd have to go with no here, right? This seems like as good a time as any to fade Fitzgeraled, since he's been getting so much love (and deservedly so). But is there really a 1 in 4 chance that he makes a one-handed catch on Sunday? Probably not the type of thing you'd want to lay -300 on, I guess.

During the Singing of The Star Spangled Banner will Jennifer Hudson Lip-Sync any part of the Song (SportsBetting)
Yes: +115
No: -145

Is it really all that common for people to be caught lip-syncing the National Anthem? Does Jennifer Hudson have a reputation for doing this? I have no idea, but I'd have to lean "No" here.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game Thank First?
SportsBetting:
Coach: +900
Doesn't thank anyone: +500
Family: +400
God: -125
Teammates: +200

BetUS:
God: -150
Coach: +800
Family: +400
Teammates: +200
Does not thank anyone: +500

God was +250 last year. I wonder what changed. Does anyone even know who Eli thanked? That's the problem with some of these, you never remember what the result was. Last year I was in transit during the pregame show and was frantically texting people trying to figure out if anyone picked the Giants (Caliendo did, apparently).

How Long will it take Jennifer Hudson to Sing the Star Spangled Banner (from starting note to last note sung)
SportsBetting:
Over 2 minutes and 1 second: -155
Under 2 minutes and 1 second: +125

Bodog:
Over 2m 1s: -160
Under 2m 1s: +130

BetUS:
Over 2m 3s: -115
Under 2m 3s: -115

I'm glad they clarified how it will be timed, I never would've guessed. There would be a nice middle here except for all the juice on the over. Unfortunately I don't have a half-point calculator for this type of things (half-second calculator?), but I'm pretty confident in saying there's no value in going for the middle.

Coin Toss (VIP)
Heads: +100
Tails: +100

VIP is also offering the game itself without juice, but that wouldn't have really fallen under the "props" category. What's interesting to me is that they also have a rewards system based on how much you bet. So why wouldn't you just bet half your account on either side, end up with the same amount of money, and get a bunch of rewards points?

For the record, the coin toss is a 50-50 proposition everywhere except Pinnacle, where the Cardinals are still slightly favored. And I couldn't get a straight answer for Pinny about what happened, beyond "We favor the Cardinals".

Color of Gatorade dumped on the Winning Head Coach
BetUS:
Lime Green: +400
Yellow: +200
Orange: +500
Red: +500
Clear/Water: +700
Blue: -130

Bodog:
Lime Green: +450
Yellow: +200
Orange: +300
Red: +550
Blue: +900
Clear/Water: +115

This is interesting just because of the huge discrepancy at the two books on the "clear/water" option. Thanks to the research of Stock Lemon, we know that "clear/water" has been the winner in each of the last three Super Bowls. I think there is significant value here. And this way you can be sure you'll have a rooting interesting until the bitter end. The maximum you can risk on this prop is $50.

Springsteen- 1st song of the Halftime show (Bodog)
Born in the USA: EV
The Rising: +500
The Wrestler: +700
Radio Nowhere: +800
I'm on Fire: +1500
Born to Run: +200
Glory Day: +250

I have no idea, I just figured I should include something about the halftime show. There is certainly nothing even approaching last year's Tom Petty props.

What Super Bowl Game Betting Line will Al Michaels allude to or mention first during the Game? (Bodog)
Pointspread: -500
Total: +350

Michaels is a fan of alluding to the line. I guess this means something like, "Some folks in Vegas will be happy about that" after a meaningless touchdown at the end of the game counts. No idea if there's any value here, but if forced I'd probably go with total.

How many food items will John Madden mention during the game? (Bodog)
Over 1.5: -280
Under 1.5: +220

The funny part about this is they easily could've put it at a higher number and had steep juice on the Under. However, I'm sure they figured it would be more amusing if the Over on how many food items Madden mentions was a huge favorite. Mission accomplished.

* - .691*.89 + .309*.11 = a 65% chance of him being right, or 35% chance of him being wrong.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLII Props

There are plenty of props concerning the game on the field next Sunday. Who will score first, who'll be the MVP, even who will commit the first holding penalty. But it's the Super Bowl- who cares about the actual game? There are much more important things going on.

I looked around a few places for the best non-football props, but ended up only needing two sites- BetUS and Bodog. The following are the seven most ridiculous types of props I found. I tried to break down what the best wagers are, but I probably failed miserably.

7. How long will it take Jordin Sparks to sing the National anthem? (Bodog)

Over 1m42s (-115)
Under 1m 42s (-115)

Sparks sang the Anthem at last year's NBA Finals. It's on YouTube- it looks like she took 1:41. Darren Rovell analyzed this same line for Billy Joel last year, and noticed this:

"I looked at every Super Bowl national anthem YouTube could offer me. And guess what? Not one singer, at least what's online, has ever done the National Anthem at the Super Bowl under 1:44."

He goes on to note that Cher did it in 1:45, Mariah Carey in 1:55, Faith Hill at 2:00, and Beyonce in 2:09. These Super Bowl performers apparently add some extra "yeahs" and such- it looks like the Over would be a decent look here.

6. Commercial Props (Bodog)

BetUS has some boring ones, like the first ad during halftime (Bud Light and Go Daddy are both 4:1). But Bodog got creative:

Which Super Bowl commercial will have a higher rating on USA Today's annual Ad Meter?
Budweiser 1:2
Go Daddy.com 3:1
Pepsi 6:1
McDonald's 9:1
Victoria Secret 8:1
Other 2:1

Looks like Budweiser is the reigning champ. I'm assuming Budweiser includes Bud Light; those two combined to have six of the top seven ads last year. So it makes sense that Bud is the overwhelming favorite.

5. TV Broadcast Props (Bodog)

How Many Times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's name during the Broadcast?
Over 5.5 (-125)
Under 5.5 (-115)

How many times will Archie Manning be shown on the TV Broadcast?
Over 4.5 (-150)
Under 4.5 (+110)

Will the entire Fox pre-game team pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl?
Yes -180
No +140

I don't really understand the Peyton prop. If Buck says "Eli's brother, Peyton, won the Super Bowl last year. Manning...", does that count as one or two? I don't know.

For the pre-game picks prop, I'd have to go with "No". How many people are there on the set, four? I would think one of them will go against the grain, if only to make things interesting. Terry Bradshaw picked the Giants last week, so he'd be the one to do it.

Update: Lozo makes an excellent point in the comments:

"no. 5 being no is a lock. only because whoever works the giants locker room after the game will take the giants. that's the only reason bradshaw took the giants last week, and he'll probably do it again this week."

4. '72 Dolphins Props (Bodog)

If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the '72 Dolphins during the Trophy Presentation?
Yes (-135)
No (-105)
Will Don Shula be on the field to shake Belichick's hand after the game?
Yes +200
No -300

Why would Kraft mention the '72 Dolphins? They really haven't done anything to deserve a mention. I'd lean towards "No" on that first one.

I'm assuming Shula lives in Florida? Why would he go to the game in Arizona just to shake Belichick's hand? I guess that's why "No" is -300.

3. Who will the MVP of the Game thank first? (Bodog)

Teammates, 2:1
God, 5:2
Family, 2:1
Coach, 5:1
Doesn't thank anyone, 6:1

I looked around Google for Brady's acceptance speech the two times he's won the award, but couldn't find it. I actually think betting on the first two wouldn't be a bad idea, I would imagine it'd end up being one of those.

2. Colour of liquid winning Head Coach is doused in (BetUS)

Transparent +400
Green +500
Yellow +300
Orange +125
Red +300
Blue +1000
Purple +1600

I don't really have any insight to add here. This one is pretty awesome, though.

1. Tom Petty Props (BetUS)

Petty will be performing at halftime. There are the standard props on this sort of thing- what song he will open with (Running Down A Dream is the favorite at BetUS), and end with (Free Falling is 2:3 at Bodog). But those pale in comparison to the random props BetUS has thought up:

Tom Petty...
smokes a joint during half time show +2500
has a wardrobe malfunction +10000
streaks field during play +50000
will smash a guitar onstage +5000
will curse during performance +8000

I'm confused as to how the joint prop is the most likely. Tom Petty cannot smoke a joint during his performance. It's just not a possibility. Also, what exactly would a Tom Petty ""wardrobe malfunction" consist of? I don't think I want to know.

He could curse. But because of the "wardrobe malfunction" thing, they've got a delay now. So if he curses, but it gets edited out, what happens? There are just so many unanswered questions here.

Update: I e-mailed BetUS about the cursing thing, here's the response I got:

"Dear Jacob, Thank you for your question. For it to be graded as a winner, Tom Petty cursing needs to be shown either on tv, on the newspaper the day after, internet, etc. The point is, it needs to be of public knowledge that he did for you to win that bet. Regards, Rick Account Manager"

I think this is good news for this bet. It'll be all over the internet if he curses, even if it's not broadcast.

Update 2: The odds on two of the Tom Petty props have been adjusted. The joint one is now +4000, and cursing is down to +5000. I'd like to think that this post had something to do with that.

Update 3: Smokes a joint is now 100:1, cursing is down to 20:1, and all is right in the world.